The Myth of "Independent Thinkers"

The Economist's Democracy in America blog has a nice little piece on the reasoning behind why so many Americans deny that there is, in fact, any global warming. A fairly straight line is drawn between global warming deniers (and their mindsets and backgrounds) and support for the torture of terrorist suspects. Part of the scientific answer:

"People's pre-existing personality biases, they find, actually shape their beliefs about the factual reality of the world; more information is unlikely to produce consensus, because people tend to reject information that does not cohere with their worldview."

The Economist blogger's further reasoning:

"A substantial number of Americans came to insist that torturing suspected terrorists was acceptable because it was a practice identified with the people they had voted for, and because it was behaviour that American troops had engaged in. The same process occurred with belief in the existence of WMD in Iraq, and, in some countries, with the 9/11 "truther" scenarios, which retain an irrational hold in many quarters; and it also seems to have occurred with climate change. We have a dynamic of political discourse that produces absolute belief in things that, often enough, aren't true. I don't believe there is any further data that could cause people who still deny the reality of anthropogenic global warming to change their minds."

Basically, people believe in irrational theories because the people who they want to lead them become associated with irrational theories. And, at this point, there is precious little that can be said that would actually convince these people otherwise, as they hold that they are "bucking the trend" or "fighting the consensus". In other words, they are being different because they want to be different and think that they are being individuals, instead of being "sheeple". It reminds me of something Ricky Gervais once said about why conspiracy theorists are obnoxious, because they think that they are just too smart because they've figured out what's "really" going on. Instead of proving how much smarter they are, they usually end up doing the opposite...

Stalinism in Kyrgyzstan

This is a well-written - and rare - dispatch from Scott Horton, an American journalist visiting a former Stalinist gulag at Chon Tash in Kyrgyzstan. The message is simple: never forget the crimes committed by the dictators of the 20th century, but also do not lightly throw around comparisons where they are not due.

I think that the work of remembering the crimes committed by Stalinism in Central Asia are particularly important. As the article notes, in 1937 Stalin conducted a purge (ie a mass murder) of "bourgeois nationalists" in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan included. These subversive elements were largely nationalist figures in the arts, sciences, government and politics who for the most part had reconciled themselves to communist rule. As such, in Stalin's paranoid mind they were suspect elements and needed to be treated as such. Their deaths helped to essentially cause a cultural and veritable civilizational collapse in Central Asia: all that comes after is largely Soviet colonialism.

I am happy that Kyrgyzstan so openly and officially recognizes this crimes, as it is a first step on a long road of healing. In my experience, most other Central Asian states could care less, beyond the perfunctory rehabilitation of these victims. The governing elites of these countries are largely Soviet holdovers, and the last thing that they would want to do is to help their people remember martyrs who believed in national independence, a strong culture, and even (gasp!) perhaps democracy. Kazakhstan's treatment of the Alash Orda movement, which established an independent Kazakh state during the Russian Civil War, and which promoted Kazakh nationalism, education, and scientific development, and whose leaders perished at the hands of Stalinist firing squads is a case in point. Likewise the Stalinist-caused famines of the 1930s, which killed half of the Kazakh population at the time (something like more than a million people) are mentioned only in passing. Far more energy is given to praising the Soviet victory of the Second World War, much as is done in Putin's Russia. Apparently a forthright examination of the past, and a grappling of its questions is too much of a social threat - it might lead to a developed, democratic society.

Their Man in Tashkent

Here is a compelling testimonial from the former British ambassador to Uzbekistan in 2002. It seems to be a pretty damning narrative of the extent of torture in Uzbekistan, and the lengths to which it was allegedly utilized by the Americans and British to outsource "enhanced interrogation" of terrorist suspects.

I find the author's observation that a totalitarian state feels remarkably different from even a run of the mill authoritarian state (I am much more familiar with the latter, less so with the former). I would find his argument much more solidaly presented if he avoided the neo-marxist rant at the end about a small coterie of businessmen engineering wars in Central Asia and the Middle East in order to gain contracts for fossil fuel extraction (such as the alleged link between Enron attempting to win a contact in Uzbekistan and its declaration as a major ally in the so-called "War on Terror".). But then again perhaps such theories are par for the course in the British civil service - I don't know. I do know that this testimony is still strong evidence against a particularly sadistic and bloodthirsty regime.

How Valuable Are States? ctd.

Like I wrote, I'm still up in the air over this one. I think that the boundaries/number/size of states could be altered, especially in the American West where most of the states between the Sierra Nevada and the Rockies were created in the 1890s by Republicans in order to maximize their Senate seats during a phase of unpopularity during an economic depression. No one even knows which became a state first, North or South Dakota (Benjamin Harrison shuffled the papers for a practical joke on history). Now, especially as these areas are rapidly depopulating, it seems odd to say the least that Wyoming or Idaho have the clout that they do, controlling the destiny of essentially all of America and the entire world.

I also think that the defenders of states are mixing two separate debates: the merits of a Senate equally apportioned among states, and the merits of a level of state government, period. I do think that overall the Senate makes sense in some intentionally twisted and backward way, and is ultimately a source of constitutional genius. SO many constitutional arguments (Europe, Iraq, what have you) seem like they could be smoothed if they were offered a Connecticut Compromise.

Also, one rebuttal against the pro-state article. The states are not sovereign in the sense that they have approved the Constitution. The original 13 states did approve a federal level of government in the sense that they agreed to nullify and forsake their previous Confederation as quasi-independent states. However, in all cases the Constitution was ratified by popularly-elected conventions, not by state legislatures. The federal government, like the state government, therefore derives its legitimacy directly from the citizenry, and not from the states. All subsequent states could only become states upon approval by Congress (and quite a few, such as "Franklin" and "Jefferson", were vetoed, despite having functioning governments).

Anyway, to address some of Andrew's points: I'm not sure how abolishing state governments in favor of non-governmental organizations or metropolitan authorities would actually streamline governance, especially as these two types of entities are already in operation (besides, wouldn't giving this kind of authority to non-governmental organizations make them, well, governments?).

And as for registering businesses/regulating intra-state commerce, I would say that a) most businesses are small and their effective business reach is within a few miles of their home point of operation, and b) states governing the registration and operation of businesses gives larger organizations the ability to operate more efficiently (apparently from observation with little "race to the bottom"). If a state has enough commercial expertise or is a focal point for many major businesses, it can have quite some clout in lawsuits against defendants in other countries even. Delaware's business courts are quite powerful (I believe that the Russian government was sued over its dismemberment of Yukos there). Perhaps Delaware has a limited reach beyond its borders, but considering how many businesses register there for doing business in the US, one does not cross them lightly.

How Valuable Are States?

An argument today for and against the continued utility of states, state government and US Senate representation by state. An interesting debate. I honestly didn't know that the equal apportionment of US Senators was the one aspect of the Constitution that was explicitly prohibited from amendment.

Personally, I'm not sure that states need to be abolished wholesale (although there is a process for merging states with other states, I believe - North and South Dakota strike me as strong candidates for merger), but certainly the Western states have borders that are completely arbitrary and could be redrawn (along, say, watershed boundaries). But this has been done in the past (such as to Nevada), and does not necessarily question the validity of state governments per se.

Why Are We in Afghanistan?, II

Nifty infographicand map on US and NATO troop levels in Afghanistan since 2001. FYI when the Taliban was overthrown at the end of 2001 there was something like 2,000 troops in the country.

So, what's the plan again?

Underestimate the Jesuits At Your Own Peril

Here is a stimulating profile of Guy Consolmagno, one of the Vatican's astronomers. Despite much of the controversy historically surrounding the Vatican with regards to science, the truth is that the Vatican Observatory has some very active scientists conducting research (the Vatican's Chief Astronomer has addressed the prospect of encountering intelligent extraterrestrial life.

NEEDLESS to say, Fr. Consolmagno is obviously a Jesuit:

“Poverty and chastity, I was used to — I had been a graduate student,” he says. “But obedience was a tough one.”

“Science cannot prove God, or disprove Him. He has to be assumed. If people have no other reason to believe in God than that they can’t imagine how the human eye could have evolved by itself, then their faith is very weak.”

America's New Police State: G20 Paranoia

Another interesting link:

A Youtube video of a small, relatively inconequential portion of the police presence in Pittsburgh. Its basically a police crackdown on a hot dog stand frequented by UPenn Pittsburgh students.

I'm actually a little shocked at how Hollywood-esque police crackdowns have become. Minus the bike-cops, this really looked like a scene out of Demolition Man or some sort of cyber punk dystopia. "I hereby declare this an unlawful assembly" indeed. Send in the hunter-killers...

And please bear in mind that these people being maced and threatened with arrest are not actually engaging even in any form of protest (although I remember something about that being constitutionally-protected as well).

Why Are We in Afghanistan?, I

If we can't do nation-building in Mexico, then why in Afghanistan?

I think this essay pretty much succinctly sums up whats wrong with
American imperium....

Scouting in Today's Police-State

Here is a rather shocking article on how today's Explorer Scouts are being trained by local law enforcement agencies to act in anti-terrorism operations, border patrolling, and drug interdiction. Because a society doesn't develop problems when 14 year olds are given a sense of authority, and potentially weapons...

On a personal note, I was previously under the assumption that the Explorer Scouts was a more laid-back organization compared to the Boy Scouts, if for no other reason than because it is coeducational. I guess I've been disabused of that notion.

Perhaps what goes around comes around. Lord Baden-Powell, founder of the Boy Scouts, was a one-time admirer of fascism, after all. But I think that even he would admit that moving young people from hiking, camping and whittling to training in police brutality is definitely not a healthy step for the direction of this country.

Turkmenistan Backing Away from the Ledge?

I suppose one should be thankful for anything resembling normality in Turkmenistan. While I don't think I would much trust my dentist to remove a benign tumour from behind my ear, I think that the people of Turkmenistan can be thankful that their current President, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, a trained dentist, did so as the inaugural operation for a new cancer hospital in Ashgabat. It's definitely better than, say, building a golden statue of yourself that always faces the sun, as the former president "Turkmenbashi" did. Who knows, perhaps this goes some way to reversing the decision five years ago to close all hospitals and fire all medical professionals in Turkmenistan.

The calendar has reverted to its original names, rather than using the names of Turkmenbashi's family. There still seems to be some dispute as to whether the Ruhnama is still official reading in Turkmenistan. Once Turkmenbashi's book is no longer used both as a means of entering paradise and as a required test for all drivers licensing exams, then I think it will be safe to say that Turkmenistan has become just another poor, hydrocarbon-rich, repressive state in Central Asia. Ruhnama text, courtesy of the government of Turkmenistan here.

Shameless Self-Promotion

Via Andrew Sullivan, some young wannabe conservative pundit hack claims that the average American decides to marry later and have less children because of cultural decay and a society swimming in pornography. Perhaops by no concidence, a certain other aspiring pundit made similar claims 80 years ago in a little tract titled Mein Kampf.

In any case, I thought that I should provide The Daily Dish with a strong rebuttal, complete with stats and semi-biographical info. They published my counter-rant here.

While I'm on the subject, I should mention that I've gotten a piece on the blog's site before.

Return of the Iron Cross

This post title sounds like a 1960's Allistair Maclean war-thriller. However, as of today German Chancellor Angela Merkel has awarded four German soldiers with the "Cross of Honour for Bravery", the first such award since the Iron Cross was eliminated in 1945.

The soldiers were awarded the cross for saving wounded soldiers and children during a suicide attack in Afghanistan. While honorable actions, this shows how much the Germany military has changed. Once upon a time such medals were awarded for things like shooting down 100 enemy aircraft.

Uighur Unrest

Uighurs are in the news again. This time, the cause is reports of serious unrest in the province of Xinjiang. Some 140 are reported dead, and hundreds injured. The causes, as can be imagined in Communist China, are murky and do not seem to have been clarified by the media, but I would venture a guess that the causes are similar to last year's riots in Tibet. The riots in Tibet were ignited by ethnic clashes between Han Chinese immigrants and the native Tibetan population. Something similar seems to have happened among the Uighurs.

China's West is looking increasingly wild...

Carbon Footprints

Over the holiday weekend, while relaxing on the Cape Cod shore, I had the opportunity to be subjected to a number of carbon-themed radio segments, including one excoriating me for using a charcoal grill instead of a gas grill (I prefer gas grills actually, but I use what I can). Other stories told of the glories of cutting one's carbon footprint by moving into micro houses worthy of Thoreau's cabin.

Honestly, this has all become too much. I am very concerned about the noticeable effects of climate change, and I feel that strong measures must be taken as soon as possible. However, efforts like those mentioned above strike me as an "ascetic chic". The inhabitants of the developed world should obsess over the carbon properties of their slightest actions and should dutifully self-flagellate themselves (paying a carbon-offset premium on a plane ticket is another example). But this all just a distraction. The problem is not Americans or Europeans using charcoal instead of propane, but the hundreds of millions of Africans and South Asians that use charcoal as their first and only energy source. McMansions are definitely a grotesque excess of American culture, but the remedy is not to force everyone to live in garden sheds. Even Thoreau lived in his cabin for only two years as a thought experiment. The great mistake of this movement of modern-day hermits is that they assume that were society's members to live in a simpler way reminiscent of past times, that we all would be in tune with a healthier nature. Unfortunately, the truth is closer to the opposite. I have actually lived in rural, less-developed societies, and the pollution and environmental degradation is often worse, not better. We should remember that the English and the French swtiched to coal as a fuel source because their landscapes were largely denuded of trees by the early Modern Period. And that was without chainsaws, multinationals, factories and credit cards.

Humans will demand to live in a more complex, progressively more technologically advanced civilization. Attempting to turn the clock back is a pure pipe dream. This is not to say that overpopulation, pollution and climate change are not extremely serious issues: indeed, they are arguably the most serious issues that civilization faces today. However, the more developed parts of society would do better to focus their energies on preventing deforestation, making agriculture more efficient, and developing clean, alternate energy sources for industry and consumer use. Market forces, not shame or self-righteousness, will be the only means of meeting these goals. People must be given a real incentive for making choices that help to restore environmental equilibrium. Just to give a personal example: in the Northeast, during the winter, I rarely use our natural gas heating system, as the cost is (in my opinion) higher than the actual value of some 5 C degrees of extra heat. In the former Soviet Union, however, where natural gas is subsidized and only directly costs consumers pennies, I had no compuction of lighting up the stove to heat the apartment, opening the window to the Siberian winter in order to prevent asphyxiation (don't try this at home!). Pricing incentives, and focusing on the truly big issues in global climate change seem like a much better investments of time and energy than worrying about how your dogs are grilled, or if you should move into a teepee.

NPR as Orwellian Mouthpiece

This is a very good post written by Glenn Greenwald in response to the NPR ombudsman's public defense of why the "harsh interrogation techniques" used by the American military and intelligence operatives in Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanimo will not be referred to by NPR as "torture". I heard this ombudsman on the radio (NPR of course), and her spoken argument mostly follows the written argument, ie these actions were not done to Americans, Bush said it was not torture, and calling it torture could infer that there is some sort of crime committed that should face consequences.

So basically, the goal is to avoid truth-telling and journalistic integrity. As Greenwald points out, it is ironic how such supposed paragons of "liberal media" as the New York Times, Washington Post and NPR are so unwilling to risk official displeasure by calling American war crimes what they are. Apparently access to the elite is all-important. And these are the very media institutions that complain about new media and the way that it is making life difficult for older media organizations that are the "pillars of democracy" (ie themselves).

Another gripe I personally have with NPR is the way that they constantly refer to those supportive of civil liberties, and who oppose the torture techniques and war crimes committed by the Bush administration, as "far left". Since when has the defense of constitutional liberties and the upholding of internationally-established norms regarding the laws of war become "leftist" or "liberal" (in the American sense)?

Russia as a Chinese Gas Station

With Russian economic output plummeting in ways not seen since the massive restructuring of the early 1990's, the big questions being asked now are Kto vinovat? ("Who's to blame?") and shto delat'? ("What is be done?") Here is an interesting article on the state of Russian thinkers' discontent with the regime. As is noted, Russia has yet to overcome it's centuries' old problem of making things that the rest of the world would actually want to buy, rather than just chopping down trees, or pulling rocks and sludge from the ground.

As an aside, quite a few histories of Russia have noted that one of the goals of Russian/Soviet imperialism has often been to literally capture new markets for its subprime goods. The Russian conquest of Central Asia was driven in no small part by its mercantilist demands for cotton and needs for captive consumers of Russian goods. I have often thought that the Soviet bloc should be reinterpreted in the light of a massive economic subsidy for the Soviet Union. Soviet materials were swapped for East German, Czechoslovakian and Polish industrial products that the Soviets could never hope to produce or buy in an open market. One has only to look at how quickly Eastern European countries have stopped trading with Russia, other than to purcahse its gas and oil.

UPDATE: Rebuttal here.

Rethinking Asia's Rise

Much has been made of Asia's spectacular economic growth in the past 20 to 30 years. Most major Asian economies seem to be faring well in the current global economic downturn. The praise for Asian revival has even led some to speculate about the future global cultural influence of the Asian giants.

However, I think that we shouldn't get too carried away. While major Asian economies, such as China and India, have experienced remarkable growth in the past decade, one can't but wonder whether we are walking down a path we have been before. Japan experienced decades of economic growth, and usually sits as number two or three on the list of biggest economies by GDP. However, it has undergone a lost decade of economic stagnation, and is currently experiencing rapid population aging and decline. Japan is affluent, and seems like a decent place to live, but it has harldy become the world power or universal economic and social model that pundits were predicting it to be.

China's economic and social development has been unique in history, and it has altered the world market in commodities and energy. However, China is beset by terrible ecological issues, and will soon see a rapid aging of its own population. Will China go the way of 1980's Japan? Some think so.

So Much for Change...

Doesn't look like a good track record is developing for reducing executive power, or for making government more transparent...

A Statistician on Healthcare

Here is a post worth reading from FiveThirtyEight, on the subject of healthcare reform. I have to admit that I am not such a policy junkie that I have been following the various proposals that have been floating around the halls of Congress lately.

Unfortunately, I feel that the healthcare reform debate has (yet again) been stymied by the extremists of the spectrum. Listening to the rhetoric, one feels that the choices on the table are either demanding no change (because our non-system is working so well), or change pushing us towards a British model of healthcare. Now, obviously none of the bills in Congress are that extreme, and most call for some hybrid public-private model. I think that the healthcare systems of Germany and Swtizerland (essentially, private markets for mandatory care where a public provider operates to varying degrees among private ones) should be more closely examined by Americans. Definitely the government subsidy for employer-based insurance needs to be eliminated, and costs need to be brought down (I refer to you Pace for more on those matters). And most importantly, the United States needs to find a way to institute such a plan without dramatically increasing an already-dramatically increasing deficit. Because any government plan will be expensive. All government programs need to be put on the table for review, including defense and entitlement.

An Internet 2.0 Company Can Actually Avoid Selling Out

Not to sound like an old man, but I do have to have some respect for "the Twitter". They postponed a scheduled maintenance in order to not interfere with dissidents' communications in Iran.

If only other internet technology firms were more interested in promoting freedom, rather than supporting censorship (I'm of course thinking )of Google, Microsoft and Yahoo in China.

Quick Rant About Attitudes Towards Events in Iran...

This post from Commentary correspondent Michael Totten sums up a lot of the frustration that I have been feeling towards certain quarters of the American commentariat (both professional and otherwise).

The argument by this segment runs along something of the following:

"Well, we don't know that the Iranian election was really fraudulent. Those people saying so are just pissed off because the more pro-Western candidate didn't win. The elections probably do represent the will of the Iranian people - they just want different things than Westerners do. All the people protesting are just spoiled rich kids. [Insert some comment about American imperialism and the hypocrisy of American foreign policy here]."

The argument from the other side runs along the lines of:

"Well, Iran never has free elections. It's just a theocratic dictatorship, as its been since 1979. It's just a matter of choosing one candidate vetted by the establishment over another. Besides, having regime change does not necessarily serve American strategic interests [Insert some comment about nuclear weapons and Israel here]."

The fallacy of both arguments is that they ignore the deep upsurge in political action by the Iranian people. What's happening there cannot be defined simply in terms of socioeconomic class, or anti-imperialism, or even pro-imperialism for that matter. Thousands, potentially millions of people are day-after-day acting in unison in direct contravenion to the authorities' commands and wishes. This could lead to something big. What happens will lie in the hands of the Iranian people and the reactions by the establishment (which is showing some signs of cracking).

American observers should be skeptical of unfiltered information coming out of the country, but they should not be so skeptical or self-centered, lest they be left on the sidelines of history.

Cyber-Assistance to Iranian Pro-Democracy Demonstrations

If anyone is interested in helping the protesters in Iran, this seems to be a quick and relatively painless method. This blog has instructions on how you can allow your computer to be used as a proxy server to allow Iranians to work around web censorship and report on what is going on.

Needless to say, if you think anyone else would be interested, pass the link on.

Random Fact for the Day

Apparently the last battle in the US Indian Wars was not Wounded Knee, but a battle in 1898 in Minnesota. The result was an Ojibway victory over the US army. Go figure.

Election in Iran

Friday saw the conclusion of the first round of voting in Iran's presidential election. And for the time being, it looks like the last round: election authorities (after some conflicting signals) declared an overwhelming victory for the reactionary and millenial Mahmoud Ahmedinejad over the reformist Mir Hossein Moussavi.

The returns are highly suspicious, to say the least, and Iranians have taken to the streets in numbers not seen since the Shah's overthrow in 1979. It is hard to see how this will end: either the ruling elites will crack, or the military and Interior Ministry will crack down.

One can only hope and pray for the best for the people of Iran. I recommend seeing Andrew Sullivan's blog, as it has the most complete coverage of the uprising that I can find so far.

Free the Uighurs, ctd.

In this latest update, apparently the British government is taking umbrage at Bermuda accepting the Uighurs without notifying the UK first. The result is a rare rocking of the colonial boat. The differing interpretations depend on whether you consider this a foreign relations matter, or an immigration matter.

For the record, I was also unaware that the Governor of Bermuda was assassinated in 1973 by black power nationalists. Oh, those 1970's...

Free the Uighurs

The US government has offered the island state of Palau $200 million in aid if it agrees to resettle 17 Uighurs being held at Guantanamo Bay. Here are a couple links to some well-written articles on the matter.

As a quick background, these Uighurs (a Turkic Muslim people related to the Uzbeks inhabiting Xinjiang in Western China) were captured by bounty hunters in Afghanistan at the beginning of the so-called "War on Terror". They have been held in the prison camp at Guantanamo for the past seven years. All were cleared by the Bush administration of having any connection to terrorism, and they are not even labelled as "enemy combatants". A number of them were recently released and resettled in Albania, and the rest (the 17 in question) were ordered to be released into the US by a federal appeals court last year. Yet in prison they remain.

Much of the problem is due to the ignorance and fear mongering of American politicans. There was a massive outcry recently in Congress of resettling these "dangerous" individuals in the US, even though they have not been accused of any crime, and cannot return to China on fear of further torture and possible execution. Their crime in American eyes is to be Muslim, separatist, and potentially "radicalized" by their unjust prison experience. All this, even though the Uighur community in Northern Virginia has offered to take the men in and help them adjust to a normal life. As a result of these shortsighted, prejudiced, grandstanding actions by politicians concerned about whipping up a populist fear of the "threat" of Muslim foreigners, no European country will offer these men (or others at Guantanamo) asylum, and so they are being effectively exiled to a Pacific island.

As something of an international realist, I am just astounded by the base ignorance and stupidity of many of the supposed conservatives who oppose the Uighurs'. Very few of these politicians and pundits are friends of China (which they also fear). If conservative political leaders had something in the way of more brains, they would recognize a useful bargaining chip when they see it (remember all those "freedom fighters" in Afghanistan??) to check China's political influence, and to weaken control of the PRC's West. That, plus the fact that they used to support a president (Bush) who said a great deal about aiding peoples struggling against tyranny.

Apparently all that talk of freedom was yet another cynical ploy. These people just give in to the atavistic urges of ignorant, fear-mongering nativists. Too bad they still have such a corrosive influence on this country's government and its values.

UPDATE: Four of the Uighurs have just been released and are being transferred to Bermuda. Perhaps they can start a shell company there. The five sent to Albania in 2006 are still there, not pursuing criminal or terrorist activity.

Anti-Terror Laws and Moral Equivalency

This post from the Washington Monthly, while perhaps not saying anything new, is a very nice summarization of all the problems with how "terrorism" is defined in the United States.

Big Mistake

It looks like the al-Shabab in Somalia is seriously pushing for war with Sufis.

"They see Wahhabism as foreign and ultimately un-Islamic."

Talk about overplaying your hand...

Long Road to Recovery

After a long search through various resources (as well as some number crunching of my own), I finally found some summarized figures on the effect of the economic transition on Post-Soviet states.

The above graph is based on numbers from the UN Statistics Division (admittedly the wiki-user didn't specify if GDP is in current or constant dollars, or is adjusted for PPP - and I'm not even sure how the UN calculated any GDP for the USSR, since I believe the Soviets did not keep such records). I'm a little suspicious of the late 1980's spurt in Soviet economic output - I thought that this period showed stagnation, followed by the chaos of perestroika. If Soviet GDP was more stagnant, then the change between 1990 and 1991 isn't so abrupt (which leads me to believe that these figures are in current prices after all). There are further IMF numbers in the sub-article that are also illuminating. Needless to say, things were bad.

In any case, it looks like in toto the former Soviet states only just reached their 1990 output levels in the past couple years. And considering that most of their recovery has been based on either resource extraction and/or foriegn-denominated loans, I'm sure the world recession is hurting them all quite badly. Apparently Russia's recession rivals its downturns in the early 90s and in 1998.

UPDATE: I double-checked and the GDP figures cited in the graph are indeed in current prices.

European Elections

The results are in for the elections to the European Parliament.

The BBC has some neat flash infographics here. The obligatory wiki background here.

Admittedly, despite having actual academic training in the structures of the EU, I constantly find myself forgetting just what the Parliament does, besides moving between Brussels and Strasbourg twice a year. I'm sure most Europeans feel the same way, which is why turnout was so low.

The interesting thing to check out is the current results compared to past results. The political left seems to be significantly declining across much of Europe. In this election, it seems that the big winners are the Christian Dems, the conservative Euroskeptics and the far-right nationalists (who might try to reconstitute a new European party, after "Identity, Tradition and Sovereignty" collapsed in November 2007).

What interests me is that the Greens and the Liberals seem to have done quite well. Perhaps there is a bright European future for greens and quasi-libertarians?

Item

I was tempted to start things off with an item about Death Camps in the American South, but how about something lighter?

Item: Russian intelligence "expert" predicts that the United States will collapse and be split up between competing foreign powers.

I think that if central government collapsed, the former United States would more likely split up into independent entities along regional lines, as above.

I forget what the exact publication was that inspired this map of American regions: it was published by the US Information Agency (a propaganda arm of the CIA that is legally forbidden to operate within the US...I found this in Peace Corps days). FYI the blue spots are urban areas that do not fit into any region. Independent city states, perhaps?

Oh, and the death camps are here.

Reborn!

Welcome one and all!

The Notes from Underground blog, after a two year silence, has been resurrected. The format has been retooled and streamlined somewhat. It pains me to remove the Russian language labels, but I assume that they have been utterly incomprehensible to most readers, and I aim to improve accessibility.

The focus of this blog will also shift somewhat from its earlier incarnation. While I will post on whatever random thoughts cross my mind, or whatever tidbits of information pass before my eyes, the goal of this blog will be to initiate, facilitate and accommodate more general discussions. To this end, open threads will be thrown out on a regular basis to the readership.

Welcome back, and enjoy!