Rethinking Asia's Rise

Much has been made of Asia's spectacular economic growth in the past 20 to 30 years. Most major Asian economies seem to be faring well in the current global economic downturn. The praise for Asian revival has even led some to speculate about the future global cultural influence of the Asian giants.

However, I think that we shouldn't get too carried away. While major Asian economies, such as China and India, have experienced remarkable growth in the past decade, one can't but wonder whether we are walking down a path we have been before. Japan experienced decades of economic growth, and usually sits as number two or three on the list of biggest economies by GDP. However, it has undergone a lost decade of economic stagnation, and is currently experiencing rapid population aging and decline. Japan is affluent, and seems like a decent place to live, but it has harldy become the world power or universal economic and social model that pundits were predicting it to be.

China's economic and social development has been unique in history, and it has altered the world market in commodities and energy. However, China is beset by terrible ecological issues, and will soon see a rapid aging of its own population. Will China go the way of 1980's Japan? Some think so.