So Much for Change...

Doesn't look like a good track record is developing for reducing executive power, or for making government more transparent...

A Statistician on Healthcare

Here is a post worth reading from FiveThirtyEight, on the subject of healthcare reform. I have to admit that I am not such a policy junkie that I have been following the various proposals that have been floating around the halls of Congress lately.

Unfortunately, I feel that the healthcare reform debate has (yet again) been stymied by the extremists of the spectrum. Listening to the rhetoric, one feels that the choices on the table are either demanding no change (because our non-system is working so well), or change pushing us towards a British model of healthcare. Now, obviously none of the bills in Congress are that extreme, and most call for some hybrid public-private model. I think that the healthcare systems of Germany and Swtizerland (essentially, private markets for mandatory care where a public provider operates to varying degrees among private ones) should be more closely examined by Americans. Definitely the government subsidy for employer-based insurance needs to be eliminated, and costs need to be brought down (I refer to you Pace for more on those matters). And most importantly, the United States needs to find a way to institute such a plan without dramatically increasing an already-dramatically increasing deficit. Because any government plan will be expensive. All government programs need to be put on the table for review, including defense and entitlement.

An Internet 2.0 Company Can Actually Avoid Selling Out

Not to sound like an old man, but I do have to have some respect for "the Twitter". They postponed a scheduled maintenance in order to not interfere with dissidents' communications in Iran.

If only other internet technology firms were more interested in promoting freedom, rather than supporting censorship (I'm of course thinking )of Google, Microsoft and Yahoo in China.

Quick Rant About Attitudes Towards Events in Iran...

This post from Commentary correspondent Michael Totten sums up a lot of the frustration that I have been feeling towards certain quarters of the American commentariat (both professional and otherwise).

The argument by this segment runs along something of the following:

"Well, we don't know that the Iranian election was really fraudulent. Those people saying so are just pissed off because the more pro-Western candidate didn't win. The elections probably do represent the will of the Iranian people - they just want different things than Westerners do. All the people protesting are just spoiled rich kids. [Insert some comment about American imperialism and the hypocrisy of American foreign policy here]."

The argument from the other side runs along the lines of:

"Well, Iran never has free elections. It's just a theocratic dictatorship, as its been since 1979. It's just a matter of choosing one candidate vetted by the establishment over another. Besides, having regime change does not necessarily serve American strategic interests [Insert some comment about nuclear weapons and Israel here]."

The fallacy of both arguments is that they ignore the deep upsurge in political action by the Iranian people. What's happening there cannot be defined simply in terms of socioeconomic class, or anti-imperialism, or even pro-imperialism for that matter. Thousands, potentially millions of people are day-after-day acting in unison in direct contravenion to the authorities' commands and wishes. This could lead to something big. What happens will lie in the hands of the Iranian people and the reactions by the establishment (which is showing some signs of cracking).

American observers should be skeptical of unfiltered information coming out of the country, but they should not be so skeptical or self-centered, lest they be left on the sidelines of history.

Cyber-Assistance to Iranian Pro-Democracy Demonstrations

If anyone is interested in helping the protesters in Iran, this seems to be a quick and relatively painless method. This blog has instructions on how you can allow your computer to be used as a proxy server to allow Iranians to work around web censorship and report on what is going on.

Needless to say, if you think anyone else would be interested, pass the link on.

Random Fact for the Day

Apparently the last battle in the US Indian Wars was not Wounded Knee, but a battle in 1898 in Minnesota. The result was an Ojibway victory over the US army. Go figure.

Election in Iran

Friday saw the conclusion of the first round of voting in Iran's presidential election. And for the time being, it looks like the last round: election authorities (after some conflicting signals) declared an overwhelming victory for the reactionary and millenial Mahmoud Ahmedinejad over the reformist Mir Hossein Moussavi.

The returns are highly suspicious, to say the least, and Iranians have taken to the streets in numbers not seen since the Shah's overthrow in 1979. It is hard to see how this will end: either the ruling elites will crack, or the military and Interior Ministry will crack down.

One can only hope and pray for the best for the people of Iran. I recommend seeing Andrew Sullivan's blog, as it has the most complete coverage of the uprising that I can find so far.

Free the Uighurs, ctd.

In this latest update, apparently the British government is taking umbrage at Bermuda accepting the Uighurs without notifying the UK first. The result is a rare rocking of the colonial boat. The differing interpretations depend on whether you consider this a foreign relations matter, or an immigration matter.

For the record, I was also unaware that the Governor of Bermuda was assassinated in 1973 by black power nationalists. Oh, those 1970's...

Free the Uighurs

The US government has offered the island state of Palau $200 million in aid if it agrees to resettle 17 Uighurs being held at Guantanamo Bay. Here are a couple links to some well-written articles on the matter.

As a quick background, these Uighurs (a Turkic Muslim people related to the Uzbeks inhabiting Xinjiang in Western China) were captured by bounty hunters in Afghanistan at the beginning of the so-called "War on Terror". They have been held in the prison camp at Guantanamo for the past seven years. All were cleared by the Bush administration of having any connection to terrorism, and they are not even labelled as "enemy combatants". A number of them were recently released and resettled in Albania, and the rest (the 17 in question) were ordered to be released into the US by a federal appeals court last year. Yet in prison they remain.

Much of the problem is due to the ignorance and fear mongering of American politicans. There was a massive outcry recently in Congress of resettling these "dangerous" individuals in the US, even though they have not been accused of any crime, and cannot return to China on fear of further torture and possible execution. Their crime in American eyes is to be Muslim, separatist, and potentially "radicalized" by their unjust prison experience. All this, even though the Uighur community in Northern Virginia has offered to take the men in and help them adjust to a normal life. As a result of these shortsighted, prejudiced, grandstanding actions by politicians concerned about whipping up a populist fear of the "threat" of Muslim foreigners, no European country will offer these men (or others at Guantanamo) asylum, and so they are being effectively exiled to a Pacific island.

As something of an international realist, I am just astounded by the base ignorance and stupidity of many of the supposed conservatives who oppose the Uighurs'. Very few of these politicians and pundits are friends of China (which they also fear). If conservative political leaders had something in the way of more brains, they would recognize a useful bargaining chip when they see it (remember all those "freedom fighters" in Afghanistan??) to check China's political influence, and to weaken control of the PRC's West. That, plus the fact that they used to support a president (Bush) who said a great deal about aiding peoples struggling against tyranny.

Apparently all that talk of freedom was yet another cynical ploy. These people just give in to the atavistic urges of ignorant, fear-mongering nativists. Too bad they still have such a corrosive influence on this country's government and its values.

UPDATE: Four of the Uighurs have just been released and are being transferred to Bermuda. Perhaps they can start a shell company there. The five sent to Albania in 2006 are still there, not pursuing criminal or terrorist activity.

Anti-Terror Laws and Moral Equivalency

This post from the Washington Monthly, while perhaps not saying anything new, is a very nice summarization of all the problems with how "terrorism" is defined in the United States.

Big Mistake

It looks like the al-Shabab in Somalia is seriously pushing for war with Sufis.

"They see Wahhabism as foreign and ultimately un-Islamic."

Talk about overplaying your hand...

Long Road to Recovery

After a long search through various resources (as well as some number crunching of my own), I finally found some summarized figures on the effect of the economic transition on Post-Soviet states.

The above graph is based on numbers from the UN Statistics Division (admittedly the wiki-user didn't specify if GDP is in current or constant dollars, or is adjusted for PPP - and I'm not even sure how the UN calculated any GDP for the USSR, since I believe the Soviets did not keep such records). I'm a little suspicious of the late 1980's spurt in Soviet economic output - I thought that this period showed stagnation, followed by the chaos of perestroika. If Soviet GDP was more stagnant, then the change between 1990 and 1991 isn't so abrupt (which leads me to believe that these figures are in current prices after all). There are further IMF numbers in the sub-article that are also illuminating. Needless to say, things were bad.

In any case, it looks like in toto the former Soviet states only just reached their 1990 output levels in the past couple years. And considering that most of their recovery has been based on either resource extraction and/or foriegn-denominated loans, I'm sure the world recession is hurting them all quite badly. Apparently Russia's recession rivals its downturns in the early 90s and in 1998.

UPDATE: I double-checked and the GDP figures cited in the graph are indeed in current prices.

European Elections

The results are in for the elections to the European Parliament.

The BBC has some neat flash infographics here. The obligatory wiki background here.

Admittedly, despite having actual academic training in the structures of the EU, I constantly find myself forgetting just what the Parliament does, besides moving between Brussels and Strasbourg twice a year. I'm sure most Europeans feel the same way, which is why turnout was so low.

The interesting thing to check out is the current results compared to past results. The political left seems to be significantly declining across much of Europe. In this election, it seems that the big winners are the Christian Dems, the conservative Euroskeptics and the far-right nationalists (who might try to reconstitute a new European party, after "Identity, Tradition and Sovereignty" collapsed in November 2007).

What interests me is that the Greens and the Liberals seem to have done quite well. Perhaps there is a bright European future for greens and quasi-libertarians?

Item

I was tempted to start things off with an item about Death Camps in the American South, but how about something lighter?

Item: Russian intelligence "expert" predicts that the United States will collapse and be split up between competing foreign powers.

I think that if central government collapsed, the former United States would more likely split up into independent entities along regional lines, as above.

I forget what the exact publication was that inspired this map of American regions: it was published by the US Information Agency (a propaganda arm of the CIA that is legally forbidden to operate within the US...I found this in Peace Corps days). FYI the blue spots are urban areas that do not fit into any region. Independent city states, perhaps?

Oh, and the death camps are here.

Reborn!

Welcome one and all!

The Notes from Underground blog, after a two year silence, has been resurrected. The format has been retooled and streamlined somewhat. It pains me to remove the Russian language labels, but I assume that they have been utterly incomprehensible to most readers, and I aim to improve accessibility.

The focus of this blog will also shift somewhat from its earlier incarnation. While I will post on whatever random thoughts cross my mind, or whatever tidbits of information pass before my eyes, the goal of this blog will be to initiate, facilitate and accommodate more general discussions. To this end, open threads will be thrown out on a regular basis to the readership.

Welcome back, and enjoy!

China and Free Trade

Sorry, I guess I'm on a free-trade kick this evening:

The BBC mentions the following report on Chinese labor standards published today by the campaigning alliance Playfair. I must say that one should be a little skeptical of an alleged research organization that is actually funded by a confederation of trade unions under the "fair trade" banner.

I notice that these Western organizations only find time for "awareness" when the working conditions are in factories producing Olympics merchandise. I also find it interesting that there are no voices of Chinese workers calling addressing workplace law violation: only Western campaigners speaking on their behalf. Much like how the Chinese Communist Party speaks for the workers' interests...

I am sure work in a Chinese factory is intense, with long hours, forced overtime, and perhaps even labor with children as young as 12. But as James Fallows points out in his excellent piece on Chinese industry in Shenzhen, Chinese peasants willingly leave their families and drudging agricultural toil behind to work in such jobs. They save money for a few years and then often return home in the hope of starting businesses. This is a hard life, but its the life of millions of people striving for and building a richer future through industrial revolution, just has America and the West did a century and a half ago. Fallows also mentions that Western campaigners have a tendency to misinterpret Chinese labor conditions, like when campaigners see computer assemblywomen grounded with wires to prevent static electricity buildups and think that they are chained to their stations as slave labor. Nor do these same campaigners seem to have much to say about non-export industries, like when 33 workers were incinerated at a government steel plant because of faulty equipment.

Those concerned about working conditions in China would better spend their energies supporting the Chinese themselves in building a society and legal system that better protects property and civil rights. If Chinese workers were free to organize for themselves outside of the Communist Party structure, they certainly would not need meddling foreigners deciding which of their workplaces were bad for them.

"A Reply from Your Congressman"

I got this junk mail in my inbox this week:
Thank you for contacting my office regarding H.R. 891, the Dog and Cat Fur Prohibition Enforcement Act. I always appreciate hearing from my constituents, and I share your concern on this important issue. I hope you will be pleased to know that I am a co-sponsor of H.R. 891.

As with any consumer product, the buyer has a right to know what they are purchasing. The inhumane practices exercised on animals in foreign countries for consumer products must be stopped and the United States government has the responsibility to do whatever possible to prevent the manufacture and sale of this animal fur. As you may know, I was a supporter and co-sponsor of the Dog and Cat Protection Act of 2000, prohibiting the imports or exports of products containing dog or cat fur into or out of the United States.

The Dog and Cat Fur Prohibition Enforcement Act will expand upon the Dog and Cat Protection Act of 2000 and effectively ban the import, export, and manufacture of raccoon dog fur in the United States. H.R. 891 will also require the labeling of all fur products. This will protect the raccoon dog species, as well as protect consumers from purchasing unlabeled or misidentified animal fur products. It is for these reasons that I am a co-sponsor of this bill. Please be assured that I will continue to support this bill, as well as any future legislative initiatives to promote animal welfare and prevent inhumane treatment of all animals.

Thank you again for sharing your thoughts with me. Please feel free to contact my office if I may be of assistance to you in the future. Sincerely, Michael E. Capuano Member of Congress

Here is my emailed response:

Dear Rep. Capuano,

While I thank you for your correspondence, I feel I must clarify that I never contacted your office regarding H.R. 891. I am worried that someone is misrepresenting me to you in regards to official correspondence.

While I am an animal lover and ardent naturalist, I question the need for bill H.R. 891 (the Dog and Cat Fur Prohibition Enforcement Act). The Raccoon dog is not an endangered species, nor is it even a true dog. While I would hope that its fur is harvested in as humane a manner as possible, I do not feel that it is the place of the House of Representatives based on these concerns to limit this fur trade with other nations in possible violation of the United States' commitments as a member of the World Trade Organization. I believe that you and other US representatives should seriously consider the arguments that the raccoon dog fur trade increases habitat conservation, limits illegal poaching, and supports native Siberian peoples such as the Evenk who engage in fur farming.

If the House of Representatives is concerned about endangered species conservation, I would advise them to research strengthening CITES and international agreements regulating the sale of endangered animal products. I would also urge the House to consider promoting market tools as a means of protecting endangered species, rather than banning the market outright.

Finally, I would heartily urge you as my Representative in Congress to pressure other members of the House into focusing on more worthwhile projects: instituting a federal cap-and-trade system of carbon emissions, thoroughly investigating the curtailment and abuse of civil and human rights in the "Global War on Terror", curbing the practice of earmarking and Congressional pork-barrel legislation, balancing the federal budget and reducing the deficit, establishing independent congressional districting commissions to end the gerrymandering of Congressional districts, extending the Presidential "fast-track" authority in negotiating free-trade agreements and urging the current administration to commit itself to a comprehensive world trade agreement as initiated in the Doha Round.

Thank you for welcoming the thoughts and concerns of one of your constituents.


(Signed, the Editors at The Economist...)

No Place Like America II

At least some people in this country will come to their senses. I found the most interesting remark on the Paris Hilton jail scandal on a BBC forum from a Nigerian man. He mentioned that in his part of the world, children of the rich and powerful scamming their way out of jail sentences is just part of the justice system. That's rough when our legal system gets realistically compared to that of a failed oil-state in sub-Saharan Africa.

At least someone finally sent her back to jail for her "learning experience". Luckily for all of us, Paris has replaced the Supreme Court and the Constitution and has self-arbritrated on the legitimacy of the sentence. Too bad she is kept in luxurious facilities separated from the general population. Also too bad she isn't at a hard labor camp in a country that wouldn't even care who she was.

No Place Like America

I'll try not to get too depressing, but you really have to admit that sometimes the news from this country is just baffling and shocking.

The overall trend in firearm fatalities has been declining in this country in recent history (see chart). Nonetheless, it appears that in recent months there is some spectacular countervailing anecdotal evidence. There was April's terrible shootings at Virginia Tech (did they ever fully straighten out the chain of events in that episode?). A month later there was a multiple-fatality sniper attack in Idaho. And now recently there has been another serial shooting in Wisconsin. One must admit, there seems to be something of an upsurge in this kind of violence these days. Boston last year saw quite a bit of gun and gang-related violence. But these incidents seem to involve many fatalities coming from one shooter, and seem to occur in suburban or rural areas.

Now, I am not going into the details of the gun debate, except to say that European friends that I have spoken with cannot comprehend how guns exist at all in common American society. I am not as opposed to guns as all that, although I think some restrictions cannot hurt, as long as sporting and hunting needs can be met. Likewise I think that some of the gun lobby's arguments for guns are a little flimsy at best. An armed populace will never really stand up to a tyrannical government, especially as that government has more of the guns. The average Iraqi household has several machine guns in the residence. This neither stopped Saddam Hussein from using his greater firepower to rule the country, nor did it stop civil chaos and crime from running rampant after his fall. Also, I have a feeling that many of those who have guns for "self-defense" are probably a greater danger than the criminals that it is meant to deter.

At the same time, Washington DC' s gun ban was obviously a joke. So is the mess of gun legislation in both the federal and state levels of government. Arkansas forbids guns in church. Alaska allows free purchase and carrying of weapons. Florida forbids carrying of guns except when concealed. Massachusetts requires background checks, official safety training, a purchase permit, and has four separate levels of ownership permits, as well as disallowing anyone from other states to transport guns through the state. On top of that, different states recognize different licenses. And then there are federal laws, of varying levels of usefulness (it is illegal for illegal immigrants to own firearms ... how helpful). Honestly, I can't imagine why anyone would bother with this hassle to even legally carry a gun.

Some honest discussion of gun regulation would probably be useful, but then so would honest discussion about many issues in this country. Frankly, I think in terms of mass-shootings we need to look past gun issues and address the reasons why people are driven to these acts of destruction. It seems that mental health care in this country just isn't at the standard it should be, and is not reaching people who sorely need it the most. Likewise, sometimes one wonders if this the dark side to the suburban culture. Young and/or disturbed people who live closeted lives in artificial communities, and who live through consumerism and media products seem to be prone to some wild and dangerous behavior. And I'm not talking just about America. Take a look at Japan and its suicide obsession.

(Charts by Economist.com)

The Latest News From the Steppe

I must say - for a country that is so unknown to the West (or at least to Britain and America) that Sacha Cohen's Borat stunts can be passed for real, Kazakhstan has been figuring pretty highly in the news these days.

First, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan (as he is officially commemorated in state museums, despite him remaining the only president) has been elected as President for Life. I wasn't aware that heads of state were still offered this title, besides Castro. And look where that got him.

Still, life is complex. There are some decent reforms that were proposed in this package of legislation, like restricting the constitutional amendment process and streamlining elections. Unfortunately, theory is different from reality in the former Soviet Union. But then this is true for the other side of the ideological spectrum: Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are even more brutal regimes than Kazakhstan's, but I am not sure that any are exactly "totalitarian", however true dissidents' criticisms of them may be. As for Nazarbayev himself, I believe (and have heard to this effect) that his true role model is Lee Yuan Kew of Singapore.

Second, and in related news to the first item: the president's son-in-law has been arrested. This is related to murky clan struggles among the power elite. In true post-communist fashion, the President's son-in-law was Ambassador to Austria and the OSCE, owner of the country's largest newspaper and television station, and director of one of the country's biggest bank. He is accused of abducting and beating two other bank directors, one of whom remains missing. Talk about the convoluted world of the new post-Soviet elite! His quote on BBC (unfortunately for Anglophones in Russian) is priceless:

"As the Republic's ambassador to Austria, I represent the interests of my government, president and my country. I think that the first president of Kazakhstan has done very much for the country ... But as a private citizen, I have my own vision for the development of Kazakhstan."

(I believe that this is called a "conflict of interest")

Third, Russia is apparently getting keen on its Central Asian neighbors, and has been in a frenzy of investment in Kazakhstan, as well as other portions of Central Asia. Putin last month snatched a pipeline deal with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan that upset Western plans, and apparently also is looking for uranium from Kazakhstan. The Great Game continues.

The former Soviet Union never ceases to surprise (as well as to frustrate). Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have had revolutions in the past four years, as well as more democracy - or instability, depending on how you look at it. Georgia has been blockaded by Russia and ethnic Georgians expelled from Moscow, Ukraine's President and Prime Minister are refusing to recognize each other's existence and are arraying their loyalists, and Kyrgyzstan's Prime Minister was poisoned.

Meanwhile, Russia is getting more assertive with it's Cold War lite - witness Putin's mini-Reykjavik moment of cooperation today, now that Bush offers to treat him like Reagan did Gorbachev.

But still, times have changed - Russia's enemies are not the Americans (so much), or even West Europeans, but their own near abroad. Russians seem to have collectively always been xenophobic, but now it strikes closer to home. A recent survey found that the following percentages of respondents considered these countries among Russia's enemies:

60% - Estonia, 46% - Georgia, 36% - Latvia, 35% - USA, 32% - Lithuania, 23% - Ukraine.

Countries considered among Russia's friends?

38% said Belarus, and 39% said Kazakhstan.